Black Friday 2026: Sales and Revenue Forecasts!

Black Friday 2026 is expected to generate billions in global e-commerce revenue, with growth forecasts for both Brazil and the United States. Market research indicates that consumers are paying closer attention to prices, new product categories are gaining momentum, and digital channels are playing a larger role in purchasing decisions.

In Brazil, forecasts already exceed BRL 13 billion in online sales over four days of promotions. Meanwhile, the US market is projected to generate nearly USD 13 billion on Black Friday alone. Explore the main forecasts for 2026 and discover what the numbers reveal about consumer behavior.

When Is Black Friday 2026?

Black Friday 2026 falls on Friday, November 27, in both Brazil and the United States. Traditionally, the event takes place the day after Thanksgiving, which will be celebrated on November 26. However, the retail calendar has expanded well beyond a single day of discounts.

In the United States, promotions extend through Cyber Monday, scheduled for November 30. As explained by Avenue, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday form an important period for consumer spending and US economic activity. As a result, retailers concentrate several promotional campaigns within the same shopping season.

In Brazil, many companies have adopted the concept of Black November, offering discounts throughout the month. According to Central do Varejo, this earlier promotional period requires inventory planning, advertising campaigns, and operational preparation. Consequently, Black Friday results increasingly depend on sales performance across several weeks.

What Is the Black Friday 2026 Revenue Forecast for Brazil?

Forecasts suggest significant growth for Brazilian e-commerce during Black Friday, driven by higher purchasing volumes. Research conducted by Confi, through Neotrust and in partnership with E-Commerce Brasil, estimates that the sector will generate BRL 13.3 billion between November 26 and 29, 2026. In addition, the study projects an increase in the number of products sold.

According to CNN Brasil, the main projected indicators are:

• Revenue: BRL 13.3 billion, representing 20.7% growth compared with 2025.

• Products sold: 69.4 million units, an increase of 15.4% year over year.

• Revenue recorded in 2025: BRL 11.03 billion during the same four-day period.

These figures indicate expectations of more transactions and greater product circulation during the promotional period. Furthermore, projected revenue growth exceeds the expected increase in the volume of products sold. As a result, Brazilian online retail could reach a new revenue milestone during Black Friday 2026.

How Has Black Friday Revenue Evolved in Brazil?

The growth projected for 2026 follows the expansion recorded during previous Black Friday events. In 2025, Brazilian e-commerce generated BRL 11.03 billion over the four-day period, an increase of 18.7% compared with the equivalent period in 2024. Therefore, current forecasts suggest that online retail will continue expanding.

The approximate 2025 figure was calculated using the 2026 volume projection and the reported growth rate.

The data also shows that Black Friday no longer concentrates all commercial opportunities within a single Friday. In 2025, the four-day event accounted for 23.5% of November's total revenue, while the remaining days generated approximately three-quarters of monthly sales. Consequently, companies that distribute their campaigns throughout November can reach consumers at different stages of the purchasing journey.

Do Higher Sales Mean Larger Purchases?

Although forecasts indicate revenue growth, average order value deserves attention. According to Confi/Neotrust, the average order value in Brazilian e-commerce declined by 13.4% between January and September 2026, while the number of orders increased by 34.9%. These figures describe the sector's performance during the first nine months of the year rather than a specific Black Friday average order value forecast.

This combination suggests that e-commerce growth is associated with higher purchasing frequency, even as customers spend less per order on average. For retailers, this scenario highlights the importance of campaigns that combine competitive discounts, convenience, and flexible payment options. After all, increasing revenue requires monitoring both transaction volume and the value generated by each purchase.

How Much Revenue Will Black Friday 2026 Generate in the United States?

Black Friday 2026 also presents positive growth expectations in the United States. According to Adobe Analytics, American e-commerce is expected to generate USD 12.9 billion on November 27 alone, representing projected growth of 9.2% compared with the previous year. The forecast covers online sales exclusively and positions Black Friday among the most important days in the American retail calendar.

Adobe also projects that Cyber Monday will generate USD 15.1 billion in digital sales, representing year-over-year growth of 6.2%. Consequently, the Monday following Black Friday is expected to remain the highest-revenue day for American e-commerce. However, Black Friday has a higher projected growth rate, supported by earlier discounts across several product categories.

Online Sales Forecasts in the United States for 2026

Source: Adobe Analytics, forecasts published in September 2026.

These figures demonstrate the importance of different moments throughout the American promotional season. Although Black Friday accounts for a significant portion of sales, Cyber Monday is expected to generate the highest daily revenue among the three events. Therefore, companies operating in this market should distribute their commercial strategies throughout the entire period.

US Holiday Shopping Season Could Exceed USD 275 Billion

Growth expectations extend beyond November's major promotional events. For the period between November 1 and December 31, 2026, Adobe estimates that online sales in the United States will reach USD 275.1 billion, an increase of 6.7% compared with 2025. Within this total, Cyber Week, covering the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to generate USD 47.5 billion.

The holiday shopping season creates opportunities across different industries and requires long-term commercial planning. In addition, Adobe forecasts that purchases made on mobile devices will represent 57.4% of online revenue between November and December. Therefore, companies targeting the American market must consider both early promotions and the mobile shopping experience.

Brazil vs. United States: Comparing Black Friday 2026 Forecasts

Although both markets show positive expectations for 2026, the studies use different measurement periods. The Brazilian forecast covers four days of sales, while the American Black Friday projection considers only the official Friday. For this reason, the figures should not be interpreted as a direct comparison of market size.

Despite these methodological differences, both forecasts point toward digital sales growth in 2026. In Brazil, the increase in the volume of products sold stands out, while the United States shows strong Black Friday growth and a greater contribution from mobile purchases. In both markets, the numbers reinforce the importance of digital shopping experiences in attracting consumers during the promotional season.

What Do Brazilian Consumers Plan to Buy on Black Friday 2026?

Purchase intention surveys show that Black Friday shopping in Brazil is becoming more diverse. Although electronics and home appliances remain relevant, categories such as fashion, beauty, and home products have gained visibility in consumer research. This shift creates opportunities for companies across different industries seeking to benefit from increased demand.

According to a report by Exame, a Shopee survey identifies home products as the category attracting the greatest interest, mentioned by 47% of respondents. Women's fashion follows with 41%, while home appliances account for 32%. However, results vary depending on each survey's sample and methodology.

Another study by Stefanini Marketing presents a different distribution of purchase intentions:

These percentages represent categories mentioned by respondents, who could express interest in several types of products. Therefore, the total exceeds 100%, and the results should not be interpreted as each category's share of revenue. Nevertheless, the survey demonstrates that consumers want to use Black Friday to purchase everyday products alongside traditionally higher-priced items.

Free Shipping and Coupons Could Influence Sales

Consumer behavior also reveals that percentage discounts alone do not determine purchasing decisions. In Shopee's survey, 79% of respondents identified free shipping as an expected benefit, while 65% mentioned larger discounts. Additionally, 45% said they intended to compare prices across different websites and applications before completing their purchases.

Research by Mercado Pago supports this trend, finding that 94% of participants consider coupons relevant, very important, or decisive. As a result, additional benefits can influence perceived value and reduce purchasing barriers. For brands, the challenge is to communicate these advantages clearly and convert initial interest into completed sales.

Which Industries Will Drive Black Friday Sales in the United States?

Adobe's forecasts indicate that electronics and apparel will remain among the highest-revenue e-commerce categories in the United States during November and December. However, other industries show higher projected growth rates, including groceries, toys, and cosmetics. This diversification demonstrates that promotional shopping also extends to essential products and recurring purchases.

These figures cover the entire November–December shopping season rather than Black Friday alone. Nevertheless, they help identify industries with strong growth expectations and explain how promotional purchases are distributed throughout the holiday period. For companies selling products across multiple categories, these insights can guide offer planning, advertising campaigns, and marketing investments.

Artificial Intelligence Is Expected to Play a Larger Role in Shopping

Artificial intelligence is also expected to influence American purchasing journeys in 2026. Adobe projects a 130% increase in traffic directed from AI tools to retail websites during the holiday shopping season compared with 2025. This forecast refers to visits originating from links provided by artificial intelligence services rather than the channel's share of total revenue.

Additionally, an Adobe survey of 5,000 consumers found that 77% of respondents who had already used AI for online shopping felt more confident in their purchasing decisions. Another 69% reported being less likely to return products purchased with this type of assistance. These results suggest that AI-powered search and recommendation tools could play an increasingly important role in product discovery and evaluation.

What Do Black Friday 2026 Forecasts Mean for Marketing?

Revenue forecasts present a positive outlook, but they also suggest greater competition for consumer attention. With shoppers comparing prices, researching products, and using multiple platforms, brands must communicate their advantages at different stages of the customer journey. Therefore, marketing planning should cover the period leading up to promotions, peak shopping days, and opportunities to build customer relationships after purchases.

Another important insight comes from Adobe's forecasts for American acquisition channels. The company estimates that social media's share of e-commerce revenue will grow by 17% during the holiday season, while affiliates and partners will see a 12% increase. These percentages represent relative growth in each channel's revenue contribution rather than conversion rates or absolute revenue shares.

In this environment, paid advertising, organic content, and customer relationship strategies can work together. Companies can also use artificial intelligence tools to produce creative variations, adapt messaging, and organize promotional calendars. With Intellux, for example, businesses can support content creation, maintain brand consistency, and schedule posts for different stages of their campaigns.

How to Prepare a Marketing Strategy for Black Friday 2026

Market data helps establish expectations, but every company needs to analyze its own sales history and audience behavior. After all, projected industry growth does not guarantee that every brand will achieve the same results. Therefore, businesses should translate research findings into practical planning decisions.

1. Analyze product categories with the greatest potential. Use purchase intention data to identify opportunities, but compare market trends with your own performance metrics. Additionally, consider products with higher margins, recurring demand, and sufficient inventory availability.

2. Start communicating before November 27. Sales distributed throughout November demonstrate the importance of early campaigns. Therefore, develop awareness content, interest lists, and targeted communications for consumers who have already shown purchase intent.

3. Highlight benefits beyond discounts. Free shipping, coupons, and payment conditions influence Brazilian purchasing decisions. Consequently, present commercial advantages clearly and maintain consistent information across advertisements, social media, and product pages.

4. Prepare creative assets for multiple channels. The projected increase in social media's contribution to e-commerce revenue reinforces the importance of diversifying content formats. Use videos, images, carousels, and advertisements adapted to each platform, considering the audience's profile and stage in the purchasing journey.

5. Monitor results throughout the campaign. Track indicators such as conversion rate, customer acquisition cost, average order value, return on ad spend, and revenue. This approach allows your company to adjust investments and identify which campaigns deliver measurable business results.

International Sales: How to Take Advantage of Black Friday in Other Markets

Online sales growth also creates opportunities for companies interested in reaching consumers in other countries. However, selling internationally requires attention to the payment experience, currency conversion, and the methods preferred by customers in each region. In this context, financial infrastructure can directly influence whether shoppers complete their purchases.

American companies planning to sell to Brazilian consumers, for example, can explore solutions offered by CambioReal, a company specializing in international payments. Among its products is CambioCheckout, a solution designed to help businesses receive payments from Latin American consumers through local payment methods, depending on availability in each market. This allows international businesses to evaluate alternatives for adapting their checkout experience to local customer preferences.

As digital transaction volumes continue to grow, simplifying the payment process can help reduce barriers for international consumers. Furthermore, offering familiar payment methods can contribute to a more accessible shopping journey. Therefore, companies combining marketing strategies, competitive offers, and shopping experiences adapted to their target markets may be better positioned to capture Black Friday 2026 opportunities.

Conclusion

Black Friday 2026 sales forecasts indicate e-commerce growth in Brazil and the United States, with digital channels playing a greater role and consumer preferences continuing to evolve. However, actual results will depend on factors such as pricing, shopping experience, commercial planning, and operational capabilities.

Now that you know the market projections, it's time to turn data into more effective campaigns. Discover Intellux and see how artificial intelligence can help your brand plan, create, and organize content for Black Friday. Prepare your communication strategy to make the most of one of the year's biggest shopping events.